NBA Draft 2018: Bibs’ top 50

After watching full games for over 100 draft prospects, I’m finally ready to reveal my top 50. This is based on where I expect guys to be in 5 years. Let the debate begin!

As always, I will preface my list by saying that my projections are based on where I think these players will be in 5 years. I don’t care about the consensus and only let public perceptions lightly affect how I ranked the players.

I initially did my rankings blind. Meaning, I took the names away and only looked at the notes that I wrote about the players. Some guys ended up way lower than I expected, others way higher. I tweaked the list a bit from there to move guys up or down slightly.

I also broke the groupings into tiers which you can see below the list.

Without further ado, here are my top 50 players. Listed by highest ceiling:

Ranking. Player (player rating in 5 years from 50-100)

Deandre Ayton (87-93)
Mo Bamba (82-92)
Khyri Thomas (84-90)
Elie Okobo (82-90)
Marvin Bagley III (85-89)
Wendell Carter, Jr. (85-89)
Lonnie Walker IV (83-88)
Jaren Jackson, Jr. (81-88)
Miles Bridges (81-88)
Colin Sexton (81-88)
Trae Young (79-88)
Luka Doncic (80-87)
Mikal Bridges (83-86)
Rawle Alkins (82-86)
De’Anthony Melton (81-86)
Jalen Brunson (80-86)
Michael Porter, Jr. (81-85)
Gary Trent, Jr. (81-85)
Mo Wagner (79-85)
Shake Milton (78-85)
Elijah Stewart (78-85)
Jevon Carter (78-85)
Robert Williams (77-85)
Svi Mykhailiuk (77-84)
Jaylen Adams (76-84)
Ray Spalding (79-83)
Jerome Robinson (78-83)
Melvin Frazier (77-83)
Kevin Huerter (76-83)
Zhaire Smith (78-82)
Aaron Holiday (77-82)
Isaac Bonga (77-82)
Marcus Foster (76-82)
Billy Preston (76-82)
Chandler Hutchinson (75-82)
Chimezie Metu (74-82)
Josh Okogie (74-82)
Omari Spellman (77-81)
Donte Divincenzo (77-81)
Landry Shamet (76-81)
Kostja Mushidi (76-81)
Gary Clark (76-80)
Brandon McCoy (75-80)
DJ Hogg (75-80)
Dzanan Musa (74-80)
Kelan Martin (73-80)
Trevon Bluiett (73-80)
Anfernee Simmons (72-80)
Vince Edwards (75-79)
Thomas Welsh (75-79)

Potential Superstar Tier 1-12

These are the guys that I could see leading a team in 5 years as the face of a franchise or as guys that you build a team around. Clearly I see a Donovan Mitchell in this draft class and we’ll dive into this player more in my sleepers breakdown.

Potential Secondary Stars 13-18

This group of guys could all become all-stars. I just am not completely confident they’ll put a team on their back (no pun intended for one of the guys here). Most of these guys are great at something but have shortcomings in other key areas that may keep them from hitting that superstar tier.

Potential Elite Role player (Draymond) tier (19-37)

This is a wide range but these are the guys whose upside will likely depend on where they go. They’re all really good players who do one thing at an elite level or do a few things at a very high level. Most of the specialists are going to fall into this range or guys that are good all around players but may not be able to lead a team at the next level for one reason or another. In the right situation they flourish but in the wrong situation they are just solid guys that get minutes nightly but aren’t depended on regularly.

Starter tier 38-48

This group of guys can start at the NBA level if things go well for them. This goes from them developing any shortcomings and finding the right team. I expect most of these guys to either start out on a bench, in the G-league, or, if they are high picks, I expect them to have a rough go of it before they find a new team or situation and find their way.

Notable absences

The Kentucky guys: I always have a hard time scouting Kentucky players. I really don’t love any of the guys from this year’s team. PJ Washington may have been my favorite of the group. If Shai or Knox turn into something then I’ll gladly take the L’s on those two. For Knox, I don’t see enough assertiveness or consistency. For Shai, perhaps he was held back by the guys around him but in all the Kentucky games I watched I was never really impressed by anything I saw from him.

Stay tuned for my in-depth breakdown on my sleepers coming next!

I know you have thoughts about this list so fire away @MBibs or @BibsCorner on twitter. Let me have it!