I sat down and looked at the list of every single NBA Free Agent. Here are my feelings on 55 of them and the chances they end up becoming Dallas Mavericks. 

It’s that time of year again. Mavs fans are wondering what big name free agent the Mavs are going to lure in. This is the 9th year of this cycle and yet somehow Mavs fans remain optimistic. I love it, honestly, but I can’t join in the optimism. Every year there’s been a new reason that this year is different, and every year we have to accept that it isn’t.

Personally, my outlook on the situation is not as bleak as those that think that the hunt is hopeless. In my eyes we already won when we acquired Porzingis. The idea that we need 3 stars is not only not true but, in my opinion, premature at this point. The pursuit of the 3rd star, if it were to come, would make more sense once we are an established playoff team that needs that push over the top. Unless that third star is on the same timeline. That’s just me though. I won’t hold the dreaming against anyone doing so but this is my take on the Mavs free agency outlook this year.

Philosophy

1. No win-now guys. I’m not interested in adding players over 30 to long-term big money deals.
2. We need a big man. I don’t care.
3. We need wings. Defensive wings, shooting wings.
4. Luka is a point guard. We don’t need two more.
5. No more small guards. Exceptions are not first options for me. But there will be some.

Key:

I’m breaking the players up into guys I don’t think we have a shot at, down to guys I think we do. All guys that would fill a supposed need, either to me or to others.

Guys I’d love to come for all reasons in red. Not in red doesn’t mean I dislike them, just don’t fit enough of my criteria.  

 

Highly unlikely (please don’t waste time on them)

• Kevin Durant (win now guy)
• Paul Millsap (34, win now)
• Kawhi Leonard (Win now)
• Kyrie Irving (Cancer, Win now)
• Jimmy Butler (Cancer, win now)
• Khris Middleton (Bucks paying)
• Brook Lopez (Likely wants to win)
• Nerlens Noel (LOL)

Unlikely

• Harrison Barnes (Too much money, not enough shooting or defense. Doubt he’d come back.)
• Deandre Jordan (Money, win now. Doubt he’d come back.)
• Jabari Parker (Mavs can’t want him, right?)
• Klay Thompson (Hearing if he doesn’t get the bag he’ll look outwardly but I think he wants to stay on the West coast so I’d expect L.A. would be his next call.)
• Nikola Vucevic (What he brings is not worth a bag from us. Likely to get paid somewhere.)
• Patrick Beverly (30, small, good defender, 39.7% from 3. I wouldn’t be mad at the signing but do believe he might be in win-now mode and prefer a team more prepared to do so.)
• JJ Redick (win now, old)
• Danny Green (win now, older, 45% from 3 this year though. YEESH.)
• DeMarcus Cousins (Injuries, likely to be in win now mode and want to get paid. Let a desperate team do it.)
• Seth Curry (Likely to stay on the west coast.)
• Bobby Portis (24, Big body, solid rebounder, 40% from 3. Likely to be matched.)

Not being discussed

• Darren Collison (31, 41% from 3. Smaller guard. Could be a fallback option)
• Joakim Noah (likely in win now mode.)

Possible

• Kemba Walker (Sounds like we’re in the top 3. East is the easier path which gives Boston some advantage, also likely to have a bigger role there, team could be his. If Hornets cave and drop a bag it’s a wrap for all though.)
• D’Angelo Russell (23, 6’5″ 37% from 3, shocking 2.3:1 assist/turnover ratio. After seeing how much he’s grown he might be near the top of my list.)
• Al Horford (33, win now)
• Tobias Harris (26, 39.7% from 3 last season (43.4 with LA).
• Julius Randle (young, bucket getting but no defense and no rebounding.)
• Bojan Bogdanovic (30, 42.5% from 3. Gets an age exception for the level of bucketism.)
• Malcolm Brogdon (26, 6’5″, defender, 42% from 3. A bag likely keeps Bucks from matching.)
• Ed Davis (30, good rebounder. big body.
• Rodney Hood (26, 6’8″, defender, 35.6% from 3 this year)
• JaMychal Green (29, 41% from 3. Decent rebounder.)
• Thomas Bryant (21, big body, ok rebounder. What will it take to get Washington not to match?)
• Al-Farouq Aminu (28, 34% from 3, defender, decent rebounder from the wing.)
• Terrence Ross (28, 38% from 3 last year, 37% career. Athletic, good size, defense. Perfect target for us.)
• Jonas Valanciunas (27, Big body)
• Dewayne Dedmon (29, 38% from 3. Big body. Not a great rebounder.
• Jeremy Lamb (27, Good size, 35% from 3. Decent defender, great length. Could be a solid add.
• Tomas Satoransky (27, 6’7″ solid defender, 39% from 3.33/1 Ast:TO ratio. restricted)
• Boban Marjanovic (30, yuge, good rebounding rate, hits free throws. Would only play limited minutes so should be affordable. May come with Tobias if we signed him.
• Willie Cauley-Stein (25, not a great rebounder. Big body.)
• Emmanuel Mudiay (23, not a shooter or distributor, decent rebounder?)
• Richaun Holmes (25, Big body, not a great rebounder.)
• Chiek Diallo (22, good rebounder, kinda small at 6’9″ 220)

Not being discussed

• Trevor Ariza (old)
• Demarre Carroll (please no)
• Taj Gibson (Could be a solid pickup as an inside defender/rebounder. Also likely cheap.)
• Ricky Rubio (not enough shooting)
• Thaddeus Young (Also could see it as a defender but would prefer more rebounding.)
• Tyreke Evans (Could be a sleeper if we strike out. Not confident in his shooting)
• Cory Joseph (right age, not a shooter)
• Robin Lopez (I could see it. Defender/rebounder that won’t demand a huge salary.)
• Justin Holiday (30, 33% from 3, good defender.)
• Kyle O’Quinn (29, played with KP before. Big body, solid rebounder.)
• Furkan Korkmaz (21, 6’7″ shooting numbers low but I’ve seen him stroke it. Not likely in Philly’s short term plans.)
• Timothe Luwawu-Cabarot (24, 6’6″ reclamation project?)

What does a winning offseason look like to me?

• Re-signing Maxi and KP is a must.
• Ok with losing DFS and JJ, though I’d welcome both back also.
• Losing Burke and Devin Harris is a plus.

We need 7-9 players (including Kostas and Macon) 

Home run wins:

1. Signing D’Angelo Russell. Filling the gaps with low cost others.
2. Sign Brogdon and Dedmon
3. Signing Tobias Harris. (getting Boban by default) Filling the gaps with low cost others.

Good offseason

1. Signing Kemba Walker. Filling the gaps with low cost others.
2. Sign Satoransky, Ross/Hood and Dedmon
3. Sign Pat Bev, Ross/Hood, and Dedmon

Of course I didn’t cover all scenarios but this is what I’m looking at.

Also, if none of the above happen???? We still have them

-Bibs